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Renewables growth will outstrip oil says BP
 Growth in the global renewable energy sector is set to outpace oil growth in the years to 2030 according to a major new energy study by BP.
“Between 2010 to 2030 the contribution to energy growth of renewables - solar, wind, geothermal and biofuels - is seen to increase from 5% to 18%,” BP predicts in a major new report on global energy trends to 2030.
“Wind, solar, bio-fuels and other renewables continue to grow strongly, increasing their share in primary energy from less than 2% now to more than 6% projected by 2030. Biofuels will provide 9% of transport fuels and nuclear and hydropower will grow steadily and gain market share in total energy consumption,” BP suggests.
The Anglo-American oil major paints a picture of primary energy use growing by up to 40% over the next 20 years and most - 93% - of that growth will come from countries outside the Organisations of Economic Co-operation and Development.
Russia, China, India and Brazil are going to dominate the world energy market in the years ahead BP’s forward-looking report forecasts,
“Natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing fossil fuel, and coal and oil are likely to lose market share as all fossil fuels experience lower growth rates,” BP declared today as it published its latest Energy Outlook document, which will be seen as a major signpost for future energy investment.
“Fossil fuels’ contribution to primary energy growth is projected to fall from 83% to 64%,” BP predicts, and it continues: “OECD oil demand peaked in 2005 and in 2030 is projected to be roughly back at its level in 1990. Biofuels will account for 9% of global transport fuels.”
“The issues covered in this document are huge ones – the effort to provide energy to fuel the global economy, sustainably, in an era of unprecedented growth,” declared BP’s chief executive Bob Dudley. “I believe one of our responsibilities is to share the information we have, to inform the debate on energy, and now on climate change.”
“Demand for non-OPEC liquids are likely to rise modestly, driven by a large increase in biofuels, along with smaller increments from Canadian oil sands, deepwater Brazil, and the FSU [Former Soviet Union,] BP says, “...which offset continued declines in mature provinces.”
“Global liquids demand is forecast to reach 102.4 million barrels per day (mmbpd) in 2030. The net growth of 16.5 mmbpd over the next 20 years comes exclusively from the emerging economies of the non-OECD,” the report predicts.
BP’s new Energy Outlook 2030 comes after 60 years of publishing its Statistical Review of World Energy. Dudley underlines it contains BP’s view of the energy future. “It is our dispassionate view of what we believe is most likely to happen on the basis of the evidence. For example, we are not as optimistic as others about progress in reducing carbon emissions,” Dudley stated. “But that doesn’t mean we oppose such progress.”
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